Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2766 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2766 EWR 07:00 → SAN 09:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1102 EWR 19:25 → SAN 22:19 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2766 United	EWR 07:00	SAN 09:59	17%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1826 United Flight history →	EWR 09:46	SAN 12:47	19%	7%	0.9%	88%
UA 1626 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	SAN 20:11	31%	14%	0.8%	78%
AS 573 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 18:29	SAN 21:37	38%	13%	1.5%	75%worse than usual
UA 1102 United	EWR 19:25	SAN 22:19	39%	16%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843	8h 39m	97%	82%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930	7h 49m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	93%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON