tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 515 United Flight history → EWR 12:20 SAT 15:21 17% 7% 0.6% 88%
UA 591 United Flight history → EWR 09:29 SAT 12:30 20% 5% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758 3h 43m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 10m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789 5h 59m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 3h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 13:32 → SAT 17:25DL 2199 11h 10m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 44m Charlotte CLT 08:41 → SAT 10:37AA 2889 6h 37m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 40m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 7h 40m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 47m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 34m 91% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 08:15 → SFO 11:29UA 1777 51m San Francisco SFO 12:20 → SAT 18:06UA 2365 10h 51m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON