Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1636 at 11:53 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1636 United	EWR 11:53	SAV 14:03	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2645 United Flight history →	EWR 20:38	SAV 22:48	39%	19%	1.0%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → SAV 18:02DL 3112	7h 31m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → SAV 14:38DL 1067	6h 08m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → SAV 10:27DL 3054	4h 27m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SAV 18:59DL 527	6h 59m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAV 10:52DL 1119	4h 52m	93%	82%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:57 → SAV 14:15UA 1612	8h 15m	98%	81%
American Details →	EWR 13:34 → CLT 15:25AA 1697	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 19:15 → SAV 20:32AA 5382 · flown by PSA	6h 58m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425	5h 56m	91%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	52m Atlanta	ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425	4h 48m	70%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON