Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3599 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day YX 3599 EWR 10:24 → SDF 12:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3415 EWR 18:00 → SDF 20:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3599 Republic	EWR 10:24	SDF 12:39	14%	3%	1.5%	no record
YX 3405 Republic	EWR 15:21	SDF 17:36	25%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 3415 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SDF 20:25	29%	10%	1.8%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON