Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2115 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2115 EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	12%	4%	1.3%	85%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	19%	7%	1.3%	72%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	23%	9%	1.2%	72%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	26%	10%	1.0%	72%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	28%	9%	1.1%	50%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	29%	11%	0.9%	73%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	29%	10%	1.0%	68%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	SFO 19:07	30%	14%	0.9%	78%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	32%	15%	0.9%	68%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	34%	17%	1.0%	62%
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	36%	18%	1.1%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	38%	17%	1.0%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 17m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON