tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 1h 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 46m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 52m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758 1h 29m Denver DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256 8h 24m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 28m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 3h 37m Denver DEN 15:55 → SJC 17:35UA 1883 10h 35m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 59m Chicago ORD 09:41 → SJC 12:25UA 307 9h 25m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON