Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2143 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2143 EWR 08:00 → SJU 12:04 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest UA 1543 EWR 19:45 → SJU 23:50 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2143 United Flight history →	EWR 08:00	SJU 12:04	23%	9%	1.1%	69%
UA 1556 United Flight history →	EWR 09:46	SJU 13:45	26%	8%	1.1%	77%
B6 1889 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 11:18	SJU 15:14	29%	11%	1.2%	80%
UA 1543 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	SJU 23:50	41%	16%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON