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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 646 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 646 EWR 07:35 → SLC 10:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2033 EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 646 United EWR 07:35 SLC 10:41 12% 4% 0.9% no record
DL 1009 Delta Flight history → EWR 07:15 SLC 10:13 12% 3% 0.8% 81%
DL 2033 Delta Flight history → EWR 17:59 SLC 21:21 35% 17% 0.8% 78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 7h 20m 91% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 50m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 05m 84% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 1h 22m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 7h 13m 91% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON