Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1690 EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2423 United Flight history →	EWR 06:42	SNA 09:35	9%	2%	0.9%	94%
UA 2477 United	EWR 14:44	SNA 17:43	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SNA 20:06	29%	8%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 07:45 → DEN 10:01UA 1758	1h 19m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320	8h 06m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 26m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857	8h 05m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON