Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2772 United Flight history →	EWR 08:30	SRQ 11:19	20%	7%	1.4%	66%
UA 1324 United Flight history →	EWR 20:09	SRQ 23:15	30%	16%	1.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 44m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:20DL 3115	6h 50m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	7h 31m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 46m	97%	86%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 21m Charlotte	CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452	7h 14m	98%	83%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 12m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON