Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3689 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–40%.

Safest bet that day YX 3689 EWR 07:01 → STL 08:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2040 EWR 19:29 → STL 21:07 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3689 Republic	EWR 07:01	STL 08:42	13%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 2311 United	EWR 09:44	STL 11:20	20%	7%	1.1%	no record
YX 3717 Republic	EWR 14:19	STL 16:01	24%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 2040 United	EWR 19:29	STL 21:07	40%	19%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON