Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1979 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1979 EWR 07:00 → TPA 09:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 8883 EWR 15:32 → TPA 18:08 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1979 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	TPA 09:51	9%	2%	2.1%	94%
UA 1273 United Flight history →	EWR 12:34	TPA 15:42	15%	5%	2.3%	81%
UA 601 United	EWR 11:55	TPA 14:46	18%	5%	2.3%	no record
UA 1415 United	EWR 09:14	TPA 12:04	18%	4%	2.2%	no record
UA 1647 United	EWR 19:13	TPA 22:21	26%	12%	1.9%	no record
UA 1505 United	EWR 20:29	TPA 23:19	28%	13%	1.6%	no record
UA 2777 United Flight history →	EWR 15:07	TPA 18:07	32%	10%	2.7%	77%
DL 8883 Delta	EWR 15:32	TPA 18:08	35%	15%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON