Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1816 EYW 14:10 → CLT 16:31 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 3822 EYW 15:39 → CLT 17:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1816 American Flight history →	EYW 14:10	CLT 16:31	21%	8%	1.8%	82%
MQ 3368 Envoy	EYW 18:33	CLT 20:46	22%	7%	2.0%	no record
AA 3822 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 15:39	CLT 17:51	23%	7%	2.1%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON