Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 4389 at 12:46, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4389 Republic	EYW 12:46	DCA 15:51	16%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	4h 57m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 23m	99%	74%
American Details →	EYW 15:39 → CLT 17:51AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 20:37 → DCA 22:24AA 2432	6h 45m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 41m	95%	73%
American Details →	EYW 14:10 → CLT 16:31AA 1816	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 19:01 → DCA 20:35AA 527	6h 25m	93%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON