Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	5h 54m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827	8h 09m	97%	78%
American Details →	EYW 14:44 → PHL 18:11AA 4509 · flown by Republic	2h 35m Philadelphia	PHL 20:46 → DFW 23:10AA 1115	9h 26m	100%	76%
American Details →	EYW 14:10 → CLT 16:31AA 1816	3h 21m Charlotte	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	8h 34m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON