tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Charlotte, leaving 15:39, is the safest bet: 40% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3502 Republic EYW 14:16 EWR 17:43 35% 20% 2.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 26m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527 8h 05m 100% 67%
DeltaDetails → EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 58m 92% 61%
AmericanDetails → EYW 14:10 → CLT 16:31AA 1816 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794 8h 02m 95% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EYW 15:39 → CLT 17:51AA 3822 · flown by Envoy 53m Charlotte CLT 18:44 → EWR 20:42AA 997 5h 03m 71% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON