Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4509 at 14:44, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4509 American flown by Republic Flight history →	EYW 14:44	PHL 18:11	16%	7%	1.5%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	8h 09m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	5h 53m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 16m	94%	75%
American Details →	EYW 14:10 → CLT 16:31AA 1816	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 18:14 → PHL 20:15AA 423	6h 05m	89%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON