Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 272 FAI 07:11 → ANC 08:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 724 FAI 13:49 → ANC 15:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 272 Alaska	FAI 07:11	ANC 08:22	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
AS 204 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 10:00	ANC 11:12	8%	3%	1.3%	98%
AS 724 Alaska	FAI 13:49	ANC 15:00	14%	5%	3.0%	no record
AS 2060 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAI 05:00	ANC 06:04	6%	2%	1.9%	94%
AS 2102 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAI 17:15	ANC 18:18	12%	4%	4.0%	88%
AS 2099 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAI 20:41	ANC 21:44	19%	8%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON