Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 08:26, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FAI 08:26 → SEA 13:05AS 285	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 14:22 → DEN 17:54AS 602	7h 28m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 12:44 → DEN 16:16AS 304	8h 45m	97%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON