Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Anchorage, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FAI 05:00 → ANC 06:04AS 2060 · flown by Horizon	3h 01m Anchorage	ANC 09:05 → PDX 13:34AS 329	7h 34m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	FAI 10:00 → ANC 11:12AS 204	59m Anchorage	ANC 12:11 → PDX 16:35AS 318	5h 35m	87%	73%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 12:34 → PDX 13:28AS 488	6h 57m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	FAI 08:26 → SEA 13:06AS 285	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 15:54 → PDX 16:48AS 441	7h 22m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON