Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 285 FAI 08:26 → SEA 13:06 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1061 FAI 14:37 → SEA 19:27 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 285 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 08:26	SEA 13:06	16%	4%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
AS 219 Alaska	FAI 01:22	SEA 06:01	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 210 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 05:31	SEA 10:12	20%	5%	0.9%	83%
AS 331 Alaska	FAI 11:57	SEA 16:38	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 242 Alaska	FAI 16:07	SEA 20:48	21%	6%	3.3%	no record
DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	FAI 14:37	SEA 19:27	22%	6%	1.5%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	FAI 05:00 → ANC 06:04AS 2060 · flown by Horizon	59m Anchorage	ANC 07:03 → SEA 11:22AS 48	5h 22m	94%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON