tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 3487 at 07:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3487 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → FAT 07:30 PDX 09:27 10% 4% 0.8% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41DL 4138 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 10m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → FAT 09:48 → SLC 12:29DL 3786 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 6h 21m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → FAT 12:35 → SLC 15:21DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 43m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1774 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 8h 09m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01AA 6275 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Phoenix PHX 10:47 → PDX 13:46AA 2684 7h 31m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → FAT 06:30 → SFO 07:34UA 5338 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m San Francisco SFO 10:08 → PDX 12:04UA 2624 5h 34m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → FAT 09:00 → DEN 12:34UA 5787 · flown by SkyWest 53m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 6h 13m 87% 77%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 06:00 → SAN 07:24AS 3402 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m San Diego SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 7h 43m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FAT 10:21 → SFO 11:25UA 5737 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 12:37 → PDX 14:33UA 2851 4h 12m 73% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON