Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 6275 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 6275 FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 668 FAT 16:31 → PHX 18:31 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6275 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:15	PHX 08:01	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
OO 4978 SkyWest	FAT 09:48	PHX 11:42	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2396 American Flight history →	FAT 13:07	PHX 15:04	22%	10%	0.6%	82%
AA 668 American	FAT 16:31	PHX 18:31	23%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON