Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1902 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1902 FAT 06:21 → SAN 07:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 812 FAT 16:21 → SAN 17:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1902 Southwest	FAT 06:21	SAN 07:46	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 3402 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SAN 07:24	16%	6%	1.2%	92%
OO 3020 SkyWest	FAT 09:07	SAN 10:37	22%	12%	1.0%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 11:12	SAN 12:42	25%	14%	0.9%	74%
OO 812 SkyWest	FAT 16:21	SAN 17:51	26%	11%	1.1%	no record
AS 2210 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 10:42	SAN 11:58	53%	12%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON