Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3345 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:58	SEA 09:20	16%	6%	0.7%	74%
AS 394 Alaska	FAT 16:19	SEA 18:29	20%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	FAT 13:07 → PHX 15:04AA 2396	2h 51m Phoenix	PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41DL 4138 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	6h 49m	98%	83%
American Details →	FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01AA 6275 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → SEA 13:53AA 2208	7h 38m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	FAT 09:48 → SLC 12:29DL 3786 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	6h 40m	100%	80%
United Details →	FAT 09:00 → DEN 12:34UA 5787 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	8h 59m	98%	78%
United Details →	FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1774	3h 02m Denver	DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058	8h 14m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	FAT 12:35 → SLC 15:21DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	5h 58m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	FAT 10:42 → SAN 11:58AS 2210 · flown by Horizon	3h 55m San Diego	SAN 15:53 → SEA 18:43AS 574	8h 01m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON