Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2187 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FCA 14:10	SAN 16:16	38%	0%	0.0%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon	3h 45m Portland	PDX 17:34 → SAN 20:01AS 667	7h 51m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	FCA 11:28 → SEA 12:05AS 2207 · flown by Horizon	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 14:17 → SAN 16:57AS 765	6h 29m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	1h 31m Seattle	SEA 08:36 → SAN 11:16AS 650	5h 43m	97%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON