Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	4h 30m	92%	73%
Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	5h 36m	97%	58%
Alaska Details →	FCA 11:28 → SEA 12:05AS 2207 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 13:20 → SFO 15:31AS 680	5h 03m	86%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON