Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1168 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1168 FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest B6 2098 FLL 18:40 → ATL 20:43 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1168 Delta Flight history →	FLL 05:23	ATL 07:11	3%	1%	0.8%	97%
DL 1215 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:33	ATL 08:27	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 1326 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:40	ATL 09:33	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 1603 Delta	FLL 07:27	ATL 09:22	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1334 Delta Flight history →	FLL 09:56	ATL 11:48	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	FLL 13:28	ATL 15:32	12%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:04	ATL 12:54	12%	3%	0.7%	81%
F9 2173 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 06:43	ATL 08:48	13%	4%	0.9%	81%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:32	ATL 17:42	14%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 1295 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:45	ATL 21:54	15%	6%	0.8%	69%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	FLL 14:30	ATL 16:34	15%	5%	0.7%	57%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:08	ATL 14:00	16%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	FLL 18:28	ATL 20:35	17%	6%	0.7%	69%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:46	ATL 18:47	18%	5%	0.7%	61%
B6 1698 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:03	ATL 11:59	23%	8%	1.0%	76%
B6 1798 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	ATL 22:55	35%	18%	1.2%	49%
F9 2171 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 15:35	ATL 17:40	35%	14%	1.1%	61%
B6 2098 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	ATL 20:43	39%	16%	1.0%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON