Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2717 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2717 FLL 09:16 → AUS 11:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2271 FLL 20:59 → AUS 23:08 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2717 Southwest	FLL 09:16	AUS 11:14	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
B6 2371 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:45	AUS 11:48	18%	7%	0.9%	78%
B6 9009 JetBlue	FLL 10:25	AUS 12:28	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
B6 2271 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	AUS 23:08	34%	13%	1.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON