Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1907 at 10:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1907 FLL 10:26 → BNA 11:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2581 FLL 20:55 → BNA 22:22 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1907 Southwest	FLL 10:26	BNA 11:50	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2856 Southwest	FLL 13:26	BNA 14:49	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2677 Southwest	FLL 16:11	BNA 17:34	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
B6 681 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	BNA 13:32	24%	9%	1.6%	57%
WN 1911 Southwest	FLL 20:11	BNA 21:35	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1906 Southwest	FLL 18:51	BNA 20:15	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
G4 355 Allegiant	FLL 15:18	BNA 16:40	29%	17%	0.9%	no record
B6 2581 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BNA 22:22	32%	16%	1.9%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON