Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–40%.

Safest bet that day B6 690 FLL 06:00 → BOS 09:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 70 FLL 18:30 → BOS 21:59 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 690 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:00	BOS 09:14	8%	4%	1.9%	93%
DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:22	BOS 14:36	21%	10%	0.9%	70%
B6 270 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:03	BOS 13:34	25%	10%	1.3%	36%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:37	BOS 22:52	26%	11%	1.2%	69%
G4 3472 Allegiant	FLL 08:16	BOS 11:19	28%	9%	1.3%	no record
B6 70 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:30	BOS 21:59	40%	23%	1.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON