tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 866 at 19:53, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 866 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 19:53 BUF 23:05 26% 14% 1.5% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 48m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → FLL 05:57 → CLT 08:06AA 1474 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 10:21 → BUF 12:16AA 1203 6h 19m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 6h 07m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 37m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:44 → CLT 09:53AA 2087 3h 56m Charlotte CLT 13:49 → BUF 15:43AA 2442 7h 59m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00DL 2165 3h 29m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 8h 03m 99% 78%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 06:00 → BOS 09:14B6 690 2h 47m Boston BOS 12:01 → BUF 13:42B6 915 7h 42m 98% 77%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 07:01 → JFK 10:00B6 302 3h 29m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902 7h 58m 100% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON