Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3136 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3136 FLL 06:01 → BWI 08:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2994 FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3136 Southwest	FLL 06:01	BWI 08:44	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 1910 Southwest	FLL 09:01	BWI 11:45	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1136 Southwest	FLL 15:00	BWI 17:48	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:25	BWI 13:26	21%	7%	1.4%	72%
WN 1816 Southwest	FLL 19:05	BWI 21:56	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	31%	11%	1.1%	52%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	38%	15%	1.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON