Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2067 at 11:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2067 FLL 11:20 → CLE 14:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1590 FLL 20:55 → CLE 23:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2067 United Flight history →	FLL 11:20	CLE 14:05	11%	5%	0.8%	92%
UA 2725 United Flight history →	FLL 14:57	CLE 17:55	19%	10%	0.9%	79%
F9 1045 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:31	CLE 14:36	20%	7%	1.3%	72%
F9 3451 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 16:17	CLE 19:22	26%	11%	1.5%	73%
B6 1590 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLE 23:55	32%	16%	1.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON