Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1474 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1474 FLL 05:57 → CLT 08:06 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 749 FLL 12:05 → CLT 14:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1474 American Flight history →	FLL 05:57	CLT 08:06	4%	2%	0.9%	94%
AA 2087 American Flight history →	FLL 07:44	CLT 09:53	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 3103 American	FLL 11:04	CLT 13:15	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2585 American	FLL 13:42	CLT 15:51	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1652 American	FLL 18:21	CLT 20:32	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 1984 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:54	CLT 21:07	26%	11%	1.8%	65%
B6 749 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	CLT 14:15	26%	9%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON