Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 1477 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day F9 1477 FLL 08:01 → CVG 10:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest G4 2798 FLL 14:52 → CVG 17:33 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1477 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 08:01	CVG 10:58	11%	4%	1.1%	62%
DL 2776 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:55	CVG 18:30	18%	7%	0.8%	75%
G4 2798 Allegiant	FLL 14:52	CVG 17:33	34%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON