tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1914 at 14:06, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1914 Southwest FLL 14:06 DAL 16:03 24% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441 4h 58m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 5h 51m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104 7h 53m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 6h 07m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 7h 50m 99% 82%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 09:45 → AUS 11:48B6 2371 2h 37m Austin AUS 14:25 → DAL 15:33B6 8700 6h 48m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON