Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 1480 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day B6 1480 FLL 06:30 → DCA 09:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1880 FLL 18:47 → DCA 21:25 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	8%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:23	DCA 14:00	16%	7%	0.9%	86%
WN 1916 Southwest	FLL 12:31	DCA 15:09	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 1680 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:42	DCA 14:15	23%	11%	0.9%	69%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	29%	16%	1.4%	57%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	34%	17%	1.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON