Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1712 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1712 FLL 07:28 → DFW 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 3317 FLL 18:37 → DFW 20:56 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1712 American Flight history →	FLL 07:28	DFW 09:43	8%	2%	0.9%	86%
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:29	DFW 10:38	12%	4%	1.0%	95%
AA 1429 American Flight history →	FLL 12:04	DFW 14:17	16%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 638 American Flight history →	FLL 16:25	DFW 18:38	22%	7%	1.0%	84%
AA 1373 American Flight history →	FLL 17:38	DFW 20:01	22%	8%	1.1%	64%
B6 2182 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DFW 15:15	23%	10%	0.8%	64%
AA 1390 American Flight history →	FLL 15:14	DFW 17:25	24%	8%	1.0%	58%
AA 2798 American	FLL 19:19	DFW 21:31	27%	7%	1.3%	no record
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	29%	11%	1.3%	68%
F9 3317 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:37	DFW 20:56	37%	10%	1.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON