Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2631 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2631 FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 790 FLL 12:00 → DTW 15:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2631 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:00	DTW 08:56	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 655 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:27	DTW 14:26	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:40	DTW 19:46	15%	5%	0.8%	70%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:10	DTW 23:18	16%	7%	0.8%	64%
B6 790 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:00	DTW 15:10	18%	7%	1.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON