Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2299 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 2299 FLL 07:00 → EWR 10:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 106 FLL 18:40 → EWR 21:43 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2299 United	FLL 07:00	EWR 10:02	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:58	EWR 10:58	12%	5%	1.4%	65%
UA 2387 United Flight history →	FLL 09:58	EWR 13:01	14%	7%	1.1%	83%
UA 210 United Flight history →	FLL 11:11	EWR 14:15	16%	11%	1.1%	90%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	FLL 12:46	EWR 15:50	24%	12%	1.0%	78%
UA 460 United	FLL 14:43	EWR 17:53	28%	14%	1.0%	no record
UA 279 United Flight history →	FLL 17:24	EWR 20:35	28%	13%	1.1%	69%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	FLL 15:53	EWR 19:00	34%	17%	1.0%	61%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	EWR 23:58	34%	19%	1.4%	51%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	EWR 21:43	43%	23%	1.3%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON