Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2705 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2705 Southwest	FLL 05:21	HOU 07:01	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4837 Southwest	FLL 20:06	HOU 21:45	33%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 22m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 37m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 26m	99%	86%
American Details →	FLL 15:14 → DFW 17:25AA 1390	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 34m	78%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON