Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: B6 914 at 19:01, 31%.

Nonstops that day


B6 914 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:01	HPN 22:15	31%	13%	1.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	1h 33m Detroit	DTW 10:29 → HPN 12:22DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	6h 22m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:39 → HPN 12:20DL 2973	6h 57m	99%	90%
American Details →	FLL 13:25 → ORD 16:00AA 1443	3h 39m Chicago	ORD 19:39 → HPN 22:59AA 3752 · flown by Envoy	9h 34m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:14 → HPN 14:49DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	8h 16m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	7h 55m	97%	86%
American Details →	FLL 05:57 → CLT 08:06AA 1474	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → HPN 13:13AA 5180 · flown by PSA	7h 16m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → HPN 18:25DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	7h 21m	99%	82%
American Details →	FLL 08:57 → CLT 11:07AA 2087	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 14:49 → HPN 16:56AA 5606 · flown by PSA	7h 59m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON