tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1421 at 12:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1421 United Flight history → FLL 12:13 IAD 14:49 10% 4% 0.7% 89%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history → FLL 17:00 IAD 19:38 31% 12% 1.4% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 7h 43m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 28m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 50m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 7h 26m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 7h 35m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722 1h 28m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 30m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:26 → ORD 14:55UA 1755 2h 05m Chicago ORD 17:00 → IAD 20:06UA 3751 7h 40m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:22 → DEN 12:52UA 204 1h 01m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 9h 00m 92% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON