Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2314 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2314 FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1495 FLL 12:56 → IAH 14:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	6%	3%	0.7%	97%
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	9%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 699 United Flight history →	FLL 11:23	IAH 13:29	10%	4%	0.7%	96%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	11%	5%	0.7%	84%
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:59	IAH 09:45	16%	5%	0.9%	81%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	16%	6%	0.7%	79%
UA 1338 United Flight history →	FLL 18:31	IAH 20:19	18%	6%	0.8%	81%
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	25%	12%	0.9%	73%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	28%	14%	1.3%	45%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	30%	9%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON