Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 2702 FLL 18:37 → JFK 21:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2165 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:06	JFK 10:00	4%	2%	1.0%	90%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:01	JFK 10:00	6%	3%	1.1%	95%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:28	JFK 11:26	11%	4%	1.0%	72%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:12	JFK 13:59	14%	5%	1.0%	72%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:29	JFK 18:48	17%	8%	1.0%	72%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	JFK 23:05	20%	8%	1.1%	59%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:19	JFK 14:13	22%	10%	1.1%	64%
B6 2702 JetBlue	FLL 18:37	JFK 21:34	35%	14%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON