Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 707 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Safest bet that day B6 707 FLL 07:53 → LAS 10:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 607 FLL 20:27 → LAS 22:32 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 707 JetBlue	FLL 07:53	LAS 10:03	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 507 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:02	LAS 17:11	26%	10%	0.9%	90%worse than usual
B6 607 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:27	LAS 22:32	26%	12%	1.0%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 08m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 27m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 22m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON