Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2133 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 09:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 672 FLL 18:36 → LGA 21:35 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2133 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:00	LGA 09:57	6%	2%	1.1%	94%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:08	LGA 09:04	11%	4%	1.4%	83%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:41	LGA 12:49	20%	7%	1.2%	74%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:29	LGA 14:24	21%	8%	1.1%	70%
AA 1135 American	FLL 12:18	LGA 15:20	23%	10%	1.1%	no record
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:34	LGA 22:30	28%	11%	1.3%	62%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:05	LGA 18:19	30%	10%	1.0%	68%
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:52	LGA 14:45	32%	13%	1.1%	58%
AA 2968 American	FLL 17:24	LGA 20:25	38%	12%	1.2%	no record
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:15	LGA 23:14	42%	17%	1.4%	55%
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 16:51	LGA 19:50	47%	17%	1.2%	74%worse than usual
B6 672 JetBlue	FLL 18:36	LGA 21:35	49%	19%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON