Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1634 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1634 Southwest	FLL 07:01	MSY 08:08	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
B6 1823 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:14	MSY 15:19	28%	15%	0.9%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:58 → MSY 09:29DL 1424	5h 06m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 04m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	7h 01m	99%	87%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 10m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	7h 14m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678	7h 16m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	6h 58m	98%	82%
United Details →	FLL 11:23 → IAH 13:29UA 699	1h 19m Houston	IAH 14:48 → MSY 16:13UA 2738	5h 50m	93%	79%
United Details →	FLL 12:13 → IAD 14:49UA 1421	3h 11m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → MSY 19:38UA 251	8h 25m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON