tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 15m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 41m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 12h 01m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 1h 07m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:28 → DFW 09:43AA 1712 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635 9h 14m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 22m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → FLL 12:04 → DFW 14:17AA 1429 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:58 → ONT 19:16AA 3006 10h 12m 98% 70%
FrontierDetails → FLL 12:56 → IAH 14:50F9 1495 1h 23m Houston IAH 16:13 → ONT 17:59F9 3131 8h 03m 83% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON